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Improving Scottish education - A report by HMIE on inspection and review 2002-2005

Improving Scottish Education - Demographic context

Population

Scotland’s population in mid-2004 was estimated at 5.08 million. It has been falling slowly since the mid-1970s.

SCOTLAND, Mid year population estimates

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Looking forward, Scotland can expect to see fewer people in the younger age groups and more older people.

The projected percentage change in age structure of Scotland's population 2004-2031

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Traditionally, Scotland was a country of emigration. For example, in the mid-1960s there was a net outflow of around 40,000 people per year. However this has changed. Since the early 1990s, inflows and outflows have been approximately equal, while in the last two years there have been net in-migration gains of around 9,000 in 2002-03 and 26,000 in 2003-04. The patterns of migration vary by area; over the period 1994-2004 the highest net in-migration rates were in East Lothian, West Lothian and Perth & Kinross while the highest net out-migration rates were in Aberdeen City, the Shetland Islands and Inverclyde. The combined effect of these factors, along with the underlying population structure, has resulted in a population increase of more than 6 percent in West Lothian and East Lothian and a decrease of more than 6 per cent in Eilean Siar, Inverclyde, Aberdeen City and Dundee City.

Areas of deprivation

The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2004 provides a relative ranking of small areas across Scotland, allowing the most deprived areas to be identified. Analysis of the data indicates that, for example, over half of Glasgow’s population live within the most deprived 15% of areas in Scotland. East Lothian, Eilean Siar, Moray, Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands have no areas within the most deprived 15% of datazones.

Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2004

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Employment

The move in Scotland away from the context of workforce employment in heavy industry is well documented elsewhere. Most recently, the main employment contexts have lain in the public sector and service industries.

Summary

All the above factors, along with their accompanying socio-economic implications, have an increasing impact on many aspects of education across all sectors. Local authorities, colleges and other providers must take them into account in their approach to and provision for learners. Further commentary on the ways in which Educational Authorities take such issues into account is to be found in the HMIE report on the first cycle of inspections of the educational functions of local authorities.

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